Freaks and Geeks – A quantum message in a bottle

Geeks win while the Jocks crash and burn

I am the Oobleck of emotional catharsis: the harder you try to get through, the more I resist; but if you’re gentle and patient, I will listen. Many shows, books, movies, songs, whatever,  just bounce right off me because they’re trying too hard to get through. But occasionally a show will quietly, persistently talk to me until I hear what it’s saying. This is one of those shows.

Freaks and Geeks is a message in a bottle that landed ashore after drifting about in its creators’ minds for 20 years. The cleverest thing about the message inside is that it’s unwritten until the bottle finds a reader – it’s the Schrodinger’s Cat of TV shows. Once the bottle is found and opened, then a message appears on the scroll, tailored to the bottle’s discoverer.

To twenty- and thirty-somethings, the message is a love letter, a nostalgic au revoir to adolescence. “Remember high school? It wasn’t so bad, right? There were things you liked about it. Go ahead and admit it – you’ll feel better. Remember when you discovered music? Your first kiss? Remember lockers, gym class, goofing off during study hour? There were some good things about those times, right? Comfortable things; peaceful things. No, it wasn’t awesome, but it wasn’t all that bad either.” Not only does it provide a glimpse into the transition from the 70s to the 80s – the death of disco, console TVs, steel cars – but it manages to provide a complete look at the high school experience, start to finish, through the eyes of its characters.

To parents, it’s a comforting letter from the future: “Your kids will be ok because you care enough to wonder if they’ll be ok. Yeah, they’re probably off doing what you’re afraid they’re doing, just like you did when you were their age. Can you blame them? Take it easy and tell them you care.” There are several types of parents on Freaks and Geeks – good, bad, involved, detached, loyal, cheating – yet all of the kids seem to turn out ok, or at least offer up a glimmer of hope.

To freaks, the predecessors of modern-day hipsters, it’s a cautionary tale suggesting focus and practice. The Freaks seem the most lost, and the most at risk of being lost and never finding their place in the world. Daniel, Nick, Lindsay and Kim are all sort of meandering off into the sunset. Lindsay, the poster-child for typical academic success, is forsaking all that for the aimless life of a freak. We don’t know if she’s just trying it on, or if she’s buying the outfit, but she’s obviously thinking hard about her next purchase. “Freaks, you are not hopeless, nor is life. You can do this, but you have to focus and try. Yes, you’ve been conditioned to believe that trying is for the Geeks, but you’re only hurting yourselves.” The Freaks aren’t hopeless, but it’ll take some work to keep them moving.

To jocks, it’s a tale of woe, for they will eventually serve the Geeks, the tortoise to their hare. With the rare exception, the Jocks are the dolts.  Their one moment of decency is when Todd sticks up for Sam in “The Little Things”. Otherwise, the jocks mostly terrorize the geeks and hang out in a clique. “Enjoy it while it lasts because it’s all downhill from here. Remember these times. Never part with your Letterman jacket, or you’ll regret it.”

But at its core, it’s a letter to the Geeks, a note of optimism, exhorting patience, patience, patience until the world is theirs. It’s really all about the Geeks and Lindsay, who is a Geek trapped in a Freak’s body. Much like the guys in Stand By Me, the Geeks grow and learn big life lessons throughout the series. And they take those lessons to heart. Their message is spoken explicitly by Mr. Fleck in his speech after they were just cleaned out by the Jocks in “Discos and Dragons”, the series finale:

Geeks win while the Jocks crash and burn

The wonderful thing about the show is that it says all these things without being heavy-handed or obvious. It constantly avoids cliches and cheap tricks, almost as if to say that you don’t have to be like everyone else; that not every situation culminates in a big, dramatic moment; that yes, life is sort of a slog, but if you keep at it you’ll be ok; that it’s our relationships that will get us through.

If there’s one message it wants to share with all its viewers it’s that, in the end, “The Geeks shall inherit the earth.”

[If you’re wondering where you can watch Freaks and Geeks, it’s tricky. It only ran for one season on NBC, and they didn’t even air the entire season before it was cancelled. But don’t let that scare you – I think it was cancelled because people just didn’t get it, not because it was a bad show. It’s nothing like Arrested Development, but it was probably cancelled for similar reasons. The cast is stacked: Seth Rogen, Jason Segel, James Franco, Linda Cardellini and several other people you’ve seen around. You can buy the DVDs on Amazon, and Netflix also has the DVDs. Otherwise it’s pretty tough to find, but it’s worth it. Have you already seen it? What did you think?]

Why is Redbox so much cheaper than Amazon and iTunes?

Last night, I rented “Waiting for ‘Superman’” from a Redbox kiosk near my house. This was my first Redbox experience.

I would normally just wait for it on Netflix Streaming, but I wanted to see the movie right now since it’s relevant to stuff I’ve been writing and discussing a lot lately. A friend had mentioned Redbox, and I had to go to the store anyway, so I checked to see if Amazon or iTunes could compete with the $1 Redbox price.

I ended up going with Redbox because I didn’t want to pay the premium being charged for rental by both Amazon Instant Video and iTunes.  Here’s the breakdown:

Redbox – $1.06
Amazon – $3.99 (276% more than Redbox)
iTunes – $4.99 (371% more than Redbox)

What’s interesting is that it would seem that renting physical media would be more difficult and expensive than renting digital media. Someone has to service the kiosks, the physical media can be lost, stolen or damaged, etc. The rental terms are very similar – a 24-hour rental is standard. So why is it so much more expensive to rent from Amazon and iTunes than Redbox?

There could be a few things at work here:

  1. A convenience premium. I chose Redbox because I decided it was worth the relative inconvenience of using a kiosk to save $3.93 over Amazon. My decision was easier because I was already going to the grocery store and the Redbox kiosk was directly on my way home from the store (I knew this thanks to the Redbox iPhone app – good job Redbox). Had I not already been going out, I may have chosen to pay the Amazon premium instead.
  2. Price skimming. Online video streaming is becoming mainstream, but it isn’t yet ubiquitous. I would guess that the demographic who is most likely to rent a movie from Amazon or iTunes (the pseudo-early adopters) has more disposable income and may be more willing to part with the extra couple bucks. To wit, the technology required to stream instant video (at minimum a PC with a broadband connection, or an Xbox 360, PS3, Wii, TiVo, iOS device, Android device, etc.) is much more expensive than a standard DVD player.
  3. Non-obvious operating costs for online content providers. Although I cited kiosk maintenance and the risk of lost, stolen or damaged media as potential cost drivers for Redbox, Amazon and iTunes may have different operating costs to worry about. They have servers to host the content, digital media licensing fees, the cost of upstream bandwidth necessary to stream video, etc. Those costs could actually be greater than the costs that Redbox faces for maintaining its kiosks.

What else could be behind the steep premium for renting movies online?

NPR’s Planet Money Podcast flirts with the broken window fallacy

[Note: If you’re short on time, just click through and read the broken window fallacy Wikipedia page. It could change the way you think about economics and how you evaluate government policy. Also, I’ve put a couple disclaimers at the bottom of this post. I had to move them down there because it was just too much non-content leading the post.]

The latest episode of the Planet Money podcast – Why Japan Will Bounce Back – may have been misleading. A few weeks ago, I wrote the following tweet, but did not publish it (there are actually two drafts here – yes, I write drafts of tweets):

Well, apparently the economic stimulus bug has hit Japan! They’ll need to create hundreds of jobs to replace all that infrastructure!

What we call a disaster in Japan, Keynes would call phase one of a stimulus program.

I didn’t publish it because I was afraid it would be misread, and people would think I was making light of the devastation in Japan. I was really making light of the tunnel vision that many have regarding government’s ability to directly improve the economy through spending. Then, I heard the economist Planet Money booked to discuss the Japanese recovery flirting with the idea that Japan’s economy could see a net benefit from the disaster.

At first, they were just discussing economic resilience of industrialized countries. But they took it a little further from “Can Japan bounce back?” to:

Question from interviewer: Is it possible to come out with a net economic positive for Japan?
Economist: In terms of GDP and production flows you might be able to say that, except for the loss of wealth. You could’ve been using that same money – those same resources – for doing other things other than rebuilding.

In writing, this doesn’t seem quite so outlandish. But pretty much everything starting with “except for the loss of wealth” was said almost as a throwaway. It sounded like the economist thought the loss of wealth and redirection of resources would be insignificant relative to the overall “stimulus” provided to the rest of the economy. (At one point, he did compare Japan’s recovery to the economic recovery resulting from the stimulus in the States, so I know “stimulus” was on his mind when he gave the previous answer.)

I think what may have happened was the Planet Money team got caught up in the hook for their story: countries like Haiti and other impoverished countries do not  bounce back catastrophe in the way that developed superpowers like Japan can. That’s true, but they got a little carried away and started veering towards the idea that the disaster could ultimately be a benefit to the Japanese economy.

Another quote (my emphasis added):

You could say, possibly over the next year or two, we’ll see some strong positive benefits including the construction of new highways, new railroads, new cell phone towers and telecommunications networks, new housing for people to replace the old stock. So we could end up with more modern, more productive, more efficient amount of capital out there than we have at the moment.

The problem is they are flirting with the broken window fallacy. Of course the result is “strong positive benefits” and newer infrastructure to “replace old stock”, but that doesn’t mean the Japanese economy will see a net improvement. In order to think that, we have to ignore all of the “old stock” that was lost. That infrastructure had value, and the new infrastructure will cost money to build. This is a net loss to Japan unless all of the infrastructure lost was essentially value-less before it was destroyed. All the old stuff was still there because it still had economic value, not because they just couldn’t get around to building more modern stuff. I’m sure there were some condemned buildings or whatever, but most of the stuff they lost was economically useful and so represents substantial economic loss.

I will note that they led with a discussion about how GDP doesn’t capture lost assets that were previously created or acquired. The example they gave was a bridge built 10 years ago: if the bridge disappears, GDP doesn’t take a hit even though there has been economic loss. So it’s possible that the quotes above were said in light of this idea that GDP could look better once Japan starts the recovery (it will). But it didn’t sound that way to me. It seemed like they acknowledged the shortcoming of the GDP calculation and then the rest of the conversation – including the quotes above – were about the economy in general (not in terms of GDP).

Ironically, most people would read this and think, “Duh. Of course there was a loss. All that stuff got wiped out.” In this case, common sense rules the day. If there is a building, and then the building is gone, that building has been lost. But economists sometimes like to get fancy and out think themselves. Hence the broken window fallacy mentioned earlier.

The disaster will result in economic benefits, just not to Japan as a whole. My guess is that geographically proximate countries will benefit as they will likely need to supply Japan with materials and goods while Japan bounces back. Competing economies will be able to sell more of their own goods (and possibly at higher prices) while Japan is offline. Even within Japan, smaller parts of the economy will benefit at a cost to the overall economy. The construction industry will surely benefit, as will other industries whose services will be required to rebuild. But the bottom line is that Japan lost a lot of its still-useful infrastructure, and that represents an economic loss. Estimates are that it will cost $100 billion to hundreds of billions of dollars for Japan to rebuild, and that’s a good estimate for how much wealth Japan has lost as a result of the disaster.

What do you think? Am I just seeing monsters under my bed?

Disclaimers

  1. I like NPR’s Planet Money podcast. A lot. I listen to every episode, read the blog and follow them on Twitter. They do a great job of covering difficult material in an objective, approachable and understandable way. I’ve learned a lot from their podcast and I have recommended it to several people. This is the only episode I remember having serious qualms with, so don’t let this discourage you from subscribing.
  2. I could be totally out of line here. I’m using some quotes from the podcast to make my point, but I encourage you to go listen to it for yourself. It’s only 20 minutes long, and you can skip to about the 8:30 mark for the portion of the show that I’m discussing. I’m not quote mining, but I also can’t transcribe the entire podcast, so I’ve tried to find a middle ground without taking things out of context.

AT&T-Mobile isn’t THAT scary

Hand drawn for a rustic look

Karl Smith of Modeled Behavior wrote a quick post about why he isn’t afraid of the big bad AT&T and T-Mobile merger. He quotes Annie Lowery on the merger, saying that AT&T-Mobile will have a 42% market share in the US. A few of my own thoughts on this:

  1. Market share is not a very good metric for identifying anti-competitive behavior (which is what matters when looking for anti-trust violations). Karl mentions in the post’s title that it’s not a “per se” offense, and he’s right. Simply having a large market share is not a per se Sherman violation (I am inferring that’s what he’s talking about – I could be wrong). It seems a little intimidating to have one big company with 42% market share, but that’s just one data point that doesn’t tell us much in a vacuum.
  2. I think this may just be a normal part of the industry lifecycle as it pertains to the number of firms in an industry.  As industries mature, the number of firms typically collapses as the product becomes commoditized. With about 300 million wireless customers in the US, it seems safe to say that wireless is becoming a commodity and it is logical that the number of firms competing would be shrinking. There’s simply not room for too many firms to compete and maintain profitability.

The one thing that makes me a tiny bit skiddish here is that wireless bandwidth is still somewhat scarce thanks to the wireless spectrum limitations. As long as the wireless bandwidth is even a little scarce, there’s “extra” profit to be made, and having too few players in the industry could mean higher prices. But I don’t think we’re to the “too few players” point yet, and I think the higher price already exists since resource scarcity already exists. I’m not actually sure how scarce the bandwidth is, but Martin Cooper (among others) has been calling for more bandwidth to be dedicated for internet access, so wireless access could still use fatter wireless tubes.

Hand drawn for a rustic look

Anyway, here’s what the generic industry lifecycle looks like, and I’ve drawn the number of firms in the industry in red. Typically, the number of firms spikes and then eventually falls pretty quickly as firms consolidate in response to commoditization. How these curves look will vary by industry, but my guess is that the number of firms in wireless telecom in consolidating earlier than what I show in this graph (so the red line would scrunch to the left a bit, probably so the peak is in the mid-to-late portion of the “growth” phase). Seem like wireless telecom is into “maturity” phase* although there’s still some innovating going on (LTE, 4G, etc.).

*That’s not to say that handsets and other complementary technologies aren’t still growing. But wireless telecom seems to more or less be settled into moving data around the airwaves and is simply trying to find faster ways to do it.

My Take on Florida Education Reform

I’ve seen rumblings, mostly con, on Twitter and Facebook about Florida’s current educational reform. I’ve had quite a bit of trouble actually finding a summary of the reform plan, although I found a lot of articles about it.  So I’ve tried to cobble together what seem to be the basic tenets of the plan, and I’m going to try to address them, mostly from an economic perspective.

If you just want to see the Cliffs Notes version, jump down to the Conclusion.

Eliminate Tenure – Tenure in academia and secondary education appear to be totally different animals called by a common name. In a university setting, I understand that tenure is designed to allow proven, experienced academics to pursue research and teaching methods that may be considered risky or controversial. It’s also seen as a draw for quality professors who are looking for job security. Secondary (used here to mean “primary and secondary”) educators don’t do research – on controversial topics or otherwise – and aren’t really known for trying out new teaching methods. So tenure really seems to be more of a reward for having stuck it out for some number of years. “You’ve put in some years, so we’re going to make your employment extremely stable.” In academia, it appears to be designed to draw quality professors and encourage risk taking and innovation. In secondary education, it seems more like a perk rewarding teachers for working in the profession and encouraging them to stick around.

I’m having trouble wrapping my mind around the benefit to society provided by tenure in secondary education. I definitely see the benefit to teachers – job security and regular pay increases – but I can’t quite see how that benefit necessarily translates into better-educated students and a better society. There are very few professions that will guarantee pay increases and erect barriers to termination just because a person has been in a job for a while. This is because “years on the job” doesn’t guarantee that a worker will produce a superior work product, and it can be very expensive to continue employing ineffective employees. In the case of teaching, employing an ineffective, tenured teacher means that society is paying a premium for poorly educated students. Not only is this expensive, but it ultimately damages society and prevents us from hiring good replacements due to budget constraints.

I hope that most tenured teachers are superior to their un-tenured colleagues, but what about the ones who aren’t? They are the most expensive teachers, and their cost prevents hiring younger, cheaper teachers to give them a shot.

Merit-based Pay – As I understand the Florida secondary education tenure system, the primary data point used to determine merit increases is years on the job. There is a performance appraisal, but I understand it’s mostly a formality. The economy may affect pay, but only if the state or county determines that things are so bad it can’t afford to give raises this year. If this happens, the unions go to work, defending their constituents, making it difficult for government to deny raises, and deterring government from even trying to do so. (NOTE: This post isn’t about unions. But I think it’s silly to try to decouple unions from a discussion of education reform, so I’ll allude to unions a few times here.) The result seems to be almost-certain pay increases based almost exclusively on years on the job. It’s also extremely difficult to fire a teacher unless the teacher does something particularly egregious. Producing poorly performing students doesn’t seem to be considered egregious so much as a result of externalities like student home life or poorly designed standardized tests. As a result, teachers are generally not fired for producing bad results – they’re either left alone or possibly moved to another school if local parents make enough noise.

The plan seems to address this by replacing tenure with merit-based pay. If tenure were totally eliminated, teachers would be evaluated annually, and their contract would need to be renewed or discontinued every year. Right now, their three-year contracts auto-renew.  This switch from tenure to merit-based pay makes sense to me in general, although it seems that we’re very short on the details of how merit will be assessed.

In most professions, a performance appraisal and measurement against some metrics is about all that is necessary. Typically, the metrics are called “goals” or “objectives” for the employee. At the beginning of the year, the employee’s manager helps the employee define the goals or the goals are simply disseminated from company management. At the end of the year, the employee receives a performance appraisal where he is evaluated qualitatively by his manager and quantitatively by comparing his actual performance to his goals. The results of the performance appraisal are typically used to determine what, if any, merit increase the employee will get that year (better performance means potential for a greater merit increase and poor performance often means no merit increase). A lot of other factors will contribute to potential increases as well: the economy, how the employee is paid relative to what the market is paying (often handled in a separate “market adjustment”), the company’s performance in the previous year, etc.

Merit-based pay for teachers is tricky because there don’t seem to be well-defined metrics. We also don’t know the market rate for teachers because teaching isn’t really a “market” per se. That basically leaves us with the economic climate to help determine teacher pay. But, as mentioned before, teacher unions typically resist allowing a poor economy to affect teacher pay. From an outsider’s perspective, it looks very much like the unions aren’t interested in finding ways to evaluate teacher performance and create a good product (viz, well-educated students), but in protecting teachers’ jobs and pay. Of course, this is totally intuitive: unions don’t exist to improve the quality of products, they exist to protect their own constituents.

Merit-based pay seems to be a good alternative to tenure in that in enables administrators and local governments to identify, reward and retain the better teachers, and weed out the poorer teachers. The trick is determining how to evaluate teachers accurately. Whether the new plan will provide reliable ways to evaluate teachers remains to be seen.

Vouchers – But teacher pay really only tackles the supply side of the equation: how do we encourage teachers to produce a good product and retain those who do? Evaluating pay and incentive structures, budgeting, and allocating teaching resources are all top-down approaches to evaluating education. Markets also consist of a demand side: who consumes the product and how do they determine which version to consume if there are substitutes? This lack of a demand side in secondary education is a big reason there isn’t a real market for teachers or education. Enter vouchers.

What if we gave a student the option to spend his money at the local school, which is known to be a crummy school, or at any number of other schools including private ones? Now does the local school and its teachers have an incentive to provide a better education? Yes, because its customers now have access to substitutes that were not available before. Vouchers are ultimately good because they promote competition. They actually create a market for education and subsequently provide a better education and may lower education costs by introducing efficiencies.

If we look at things from the local school’s perspective, I think this becomes more obvious. Without vouchers or some other form of competition, a local school has a more or less guaranteed customer base. The kids who grow up within a certain radius of the school must go there unless they can go to a magnet school or their parents can afford to send them to private school. So the school knows that it will definitely get a certain number of kids every year just because it exists. All it has to do is collect its funding from the county, hire some teachers and the rest pretty much takes care of itself. What incentive is there for the school to improve its performance? Where will its customers (the students) go if it performs poorly?

When there’s a market offering equally-priced substitutes, customers will choose the best substitute. If I go to McDonald’s and get a bad hamburger, I’ll go next door to Burger King and see what they have to offer. If Burger King stinks, I’ll try Wendy’s. If Wendy’s stinks? I might just decide not to spend money on a hamburger. What happens if a student goes to a school for an education and the education his school provides is poor? Not only is there no Burger King or Wendy’s (unless his family can afford private alternatives), but he must spend his money at that school. Even parents who pay for their kids to attend private school still have to pay into the public education kitty. The student is forced to buy a product from a single provider and he has no alternatives. The school is a local monopoly whose product is secondary education.  What incentives does the school have to provide a better product when it has a captive customer base?  Sure, we can try to provide indirect incentives like threatening to cut funding if they don’t produce better test scores, but there is no direct way for the consumer of the product to choose substitutes and punish the school for a poor quality education.

But if we allow the student to spend his money at any school – public or private – the schools must compete for that student’s money. Competition forces producers to make better products and use their resources more efficiently because they can’t rest on their laurels and just assume that their current customers will be their future customers.

Conclusion

It seems like the plan might also involve some tax deduction shenanigans and other smaller items, but most of the chatter I’ve seen doesn’t focus on these. I couldn’t find enough information to even describe the other factors, so I’m just going to leave them alone.

What’s really baffling about all this is that, at the macro level, there is an ongoing, decades-long discussion around how we can improve our educational system – how we’re falling behind other countries in educational output, how our students aren’t as prepared as students from other countries – and yet we refuse to evaluate the quality of our educators in order to promote the good ones and replace the bad ones. This conversation was going on for years before Milton Friedman wrote about the need for education reform in his 1979 book “Free to Choose”, and yet all the talking doesn’t seem to be affecting actual student performance. We seem to be asking how we can improve the quality of our country’s education product (and typically the answer seems to come back, “spend more money”) while refusing to evaluate the producers of that product.

Other groups need to step in and give it a shot. Modern technology should make this relatively easy by offering an “educators” version of Consumer Reports, or a website for parents to rate their kids’ teachers, or a peer evaluation system or some other way of identifying those teachers who are doing good work. The LA Times attempted to do this, but that attempt was strongly rebuffed by the unions as they called for a boycott of the Times:

The Los Angeles teachers union president said Sunday he was organizing a “massive boycott” of The Times after the newspaper began publishing a series of articles that uses student test scores to estimate the effectiveness of district teachers.

As the LA Times discovered, there is a lot of data out there, but it can be difficult to evaluate that data and determine how to proceed without more science to help us understand how to identify good teachers. Just looking at data doesn’t tell us anything – we need to know what we’re looking for and we need to be prepared to act on what we find.

The current reform in Florida seems to be heading in the right direction. Merit-based pay seems to be a more transparent and effective way to evaluate our teachers, identify the good ones and reward them for their good work. Although the metrics and methodology required to actually evaluate teachers’ merit don’t seem to be well defined, that may be because they weren’t previously required for teacher evaluations, and because the unions have been resisting this kind of evaluation. If these metrics and methods for evaluation haven’t happened organically to this point, it seems unlikely that they’ll ever happen without some burning platform. Vouchers seem like a no-brainer to me as they would create a competitive market for education, improving quality and potentially reducing cost.

What do you think? Am I misunderstanding the proposed reforms? Overestimating the value of competition in education?

Hey, I was just about to enforce that! How Arizona forced the federal government to do something about illegal immigration… sort of.

The Obama Administration is filing suit against Arizona for its new illegal immigration law.  As far as I can tell from skimming the Arizona State Senate Bill, the purpose of the bill is to enforce the existing federal immigration laws.  So, the “Arizona immigration law” is really just a declaration by Arizona as to how it will enforce federal immigration laws.

Ultimately, this means three things:  First, the Arizona legislature does not feel that the federal government is doing an adequate job of enforcing its own immigration laws; Second, Arizona has determined that it should do its best to enforce the federal immigration laws within the state; Third, the federal government, instead of enforcing its own immigration laws, will sue Arizona for trying to enforce the federal immigration laws.

The issue has been hot and cold for many years now, but no progress has really been made in all that time.  My guess was that Arizona had identified illegal immigration as a real problem, but that the problem was too expensive to fix on its own.  Also, Arizona’s border is also the US border, so they figured the US should kick in to help protect it.

Here’s a summary of the bizarre pieces of this situation:

  • The US Constitution gives Congress the authority to make laws.
  • Article I, Section 8 – Powers of Congress: “To establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization, and uniform Laws on the subject of Bankruptcies throughout the United States…”
  • Congress has made laws regarding immigration and naturalization.
  • Here is a good summary of Immigration Law from a 2006 paper from the Congressional Budget Office.
  • The Federal Government has even created an agency – the CBP – to enforce those laws.
  • CBP Wikipedia Page
  • Specifically, the President is tasked with taking care that the laws be faithfully executed.
  • Article II,  Section 3 – State of the Union, Convening Congress:   “…he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed…”
  • The Laws are not being executed (either by the CBP or the President).
  • This is mostly anecdotal, but I think it can be implicitly confirmed by the general public consensus that something needs to be done about illegal immigration. The debates over the past several years have focused on what to do about it, not on whether it’s a problem.
  • The US Constitution says that the States’ judges are bound by the US Constitution and federal laws.
  • Article VI – Debts, Supremacy, Oaths:  “This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the Authority of the United States, shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the Judges in every State shall be bound thereby, any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding.” (If the States were NOT to enforce immigration Federal laws, I assume it would be stated in Article I, Section 10 – Power prohibited to the States. There is no such statement in Article I, Section 10.)
  • Arizona passed a law whose stated intent is to enforce federal immigration law as completely as possible.
  • Arizona HB2162: “No official or agency of this state or a county, city, town or other political subdivision of this state may limit or restrict the enforcement of federal immigration laws to less than the full extent permitted by federal law.”
  • The Federal Government, which is not enforcing the immigration laws as it has been tasked to do, is suing Arizona for passing a law stating that it will enforce the federal law as completely as possible.

When the story about the Arizona immigration law first hit the mainstream, I immediately suspected it was an attempt to goad the federal government into action on the illegal immigration issue:

  • @DanielPAnderson said: “@JoshDoody I’m curious as to what you think about what is happening in Arizona with regards to the immigration bill?”
  • I replied (Part 1, Part 2): “I don’t know much about it. My gut says illegal immigration is a prob. Fed isn’t dealing with it. Border states are disproportionately affected by the issue and they’re mad. I think they may be trying to goad fed into action.”

Arizona was basically saying, “Well, we tried doing everything through diplomatic channels and several consecutive presidential administrations have ignored us, so we’re going to try something a little more direct to see if we can get some action out of the federal government.” I don’t think they anticipated this kind of action, but it isn’t necessarily a bad result for them.  If the federal government is going to sue Arizona for its new immigration law, it should also be willing to finally do something about the issue.

Out of Work and Loving It: How I handled my four-month jobless stint (Part 1 of 3)

[Josh’s note: This is Part 1 of a 3-part series. Part 2 is here and Part 3 is here.]

After being out of work for almost five months, I’ve finally gotten a job offer. I consider this to be both excellent news and sort of a bummer.  I’ve actually had a great time while I was out of work, and my financial situation is actually better than it was before I was let go.  I’m sure each jobless person’s situation is unique but, maybe in sharing mine, I can help calm the fear of the unknown and the anxiety that some experience when they first lose their jobs. Continue reading

Need a story? Blame the refs!

Full disclosure: I’m a psychotic Florida Football fan. I spent almost six years as an undergrad at UF, and I’m there now working on my MBA. I may be biased. But so is everyone else who follows or reports on sports, so I’m not alone. In this article, I will try to be as objective and rational as possible, which means I won’t be trying to write this during any Gator games.

As always, the sports world has been awash in controversy and conspiracy theories this year. After all, who would watch ESPN if it were just a bunch of talking heads reporting scores that could be found freely on the web? Sports journalists’ jobs are to report facts and generate buzz. Buzz generates viewers. Viewers help generate revenue. And while I think that business model is fine, I think maybe sports journalists should be held to a higher standard than they currently are.

True, sports journalists aren’t typically reporting on significant world events — tragedies, politics, technological and medical breakthroughs, etc. — but, as with mainstream journalism, what they report can have real-world consequences. Usually, those consequences can be measured in dollars, and sometimes they can be measured in affected lives. But even without measuring the effects of what sports journalists report, I think it’s important that they report truth (or what they know to be true) and that they do their due diligence and find some evidence to support what they’re “reporting”.

Do Florida and Alabama get all the calls?

“There’s a conspiracy to get Florida and Alabama into the National Title game!” This statement has been made both explicitly and implicitly by many over the past several months. Mike Wilbon very, very strongly implied it. I think he stopped short of actually saying, “There’s a conspiracy theory.” when Tony asked him point-blank if that’s what he thought. Ultimately, Mike fell back on claiming there’s an “environment” that is cultivated that causes this stuff to happen. Other bloggers and sports media personalities have alluded to it as well. And, true, these people aren’t “journalists” per se, but they’re sort of the cyclists of the car-and-pedestrian world: they get all the privileges of being journalists, but don’t have to follow any of the rules.

The mostly commonly cited indicator of the alleged conspiracy is that Florida and Alabama “get all the calls” in order to give them an edge against their opponents. In other words, the refs are either blowing calls, or making the wrong calls in order to give Florida an edge. I have yet to see any real evidence to support this claim. And yet the claim itself could have some very real consequences for people. For example, the refs for the Arkansas vs. UF and LSU vs. UGA games were suspended after the LSU vs. UGA game. That means they didn’t get paid. And it means their reputations have taken a hit. And it means their careers as refs could be shortened substantially. After all, if they’re trying to rig games, they’re responsible for defrauding a LOT of people, and they’ll likely end up in jail like Tim Donaghy. So, they’ve given up quite a bit to get UF and Alabama into the BCS Championship game picture, haven’t they? And what have they gained by giving up all that? Nothing that I can think of. It seems like the only possible compensation they might’ve received for assuming all that risk is cash. But where’s the paper trail? In the end, I think the onus is on the conspiracy theorists to gather some kind of evidence to back up their claims. Without any evidence, it’s just speculation. And that’s not “reporting”, is it? Even sports journalists are responsible for following some kind of “good reporting standard”, aren’t they?

Statistics is 99% certain it knows the answer

Let’s take a look at some rudimentary analysis of the claim that Florida and Alabama “get all the calls” to help them win games.

It’s actually really easy to see who’s getting all the calls in the Florida and Alabama match-ups this season. I did some basic statistical analysis of the penalties called against Florida and Alabama relative to their respective opponents. I looked at total number of penalties called against, and total penalty yards assessed against each team. Here are the numbers (all of these are averages) through the end of the regular season:

UF: 6.5 penalties called against for 49.5 yards per game.

UF Opponents: 6.17 penalties called against for 50.17 yards per game.

Alabama: 5.25 penalties called against for 46.25 yards per game.

Alabama Opponents: 6.08 penalties called against for 51.33 yards per game.

So, on average UF is flagged .33 fewer times per game and is penalized .67 yards fewer per game. And, on average Alabama draws .83 fewer flags per game and is penalized 5.08 yards fewer per game.

It turns out that these differences are not statistically significant. Specifically, we I can say that I’m 99% confident that neither UF nor Alabama have fewer penalties and yards assessed per game than their respective opponents due to real world factors such as bias or skill.

I’ve been running the numbers for both teams every week since Week 6 of the season, and there has never been a statistically significant difference between either UF or Alabama and their respective opponents with respect to aggregate number of penalties and yards called against.

Ultimately, I think there are two factors at play here: first, the media feels compelled to generate stories; second, there is some observer bias and that is clouding the media’s judgment. I don’t think my first factor really needs any explanation. It’s pretty obvious that the media in general, and specifically the sports media, thrive on controversy, tragedy, intrigue, etc. They actively look for these types of stories and, occasionally, they manufacture them to keep viewers interested. But the second one isn’t explored very often. For example, after the Arkansas vs. UF game, there were many cries of conspiracy to get UF into the Championship game. But where were the cries when the refs blew four big calls in the Tennessee vs. UF game earlier in the year? That game was close all the way (at least on the scoreboard), and the refs called an excessive celebration penalty against Florida that they didn’t call in a similar situation against UT later, and they wrongly called intentional grounding against Florida and totally blew an obvious intentional grounding call against Tennessee later. But those plays are never mentioned when the conspiracy theories are being discussed. Only plays that support the theorists’ hypothesis are discussed.