Snap back to reality: $55 tourney recap

I played a $55 tournament last night and it was pretty frustrating. We started with 6K chips and 31 people. I finished 22nd after a little more than three hours. I never got my stack up to more than 9500. What was wierd was that nobody ever had a big stack. We were all sitting around short-stacked, trying to get chips, but really just moving them around the table in equal proportion.

I’ll write up a recap of the significant hands later, but for now I’m going to play a $50 + 5 freeze-out online. My first goal today will be to get my chip stack above 150% of the starting chip stack.

I finally wrote the recap, so here it is:

This tournament’s structure is very fast. We start with 6K chips (up from 4K earlier this year) and blinds of 25/50. Blinds increase every 20 minutes according to the following schedule: 25/50, 50/100, 75/150, 100/200, 150/300, 200/400, 300/600, 400/800, 500/1000-100, 700/1400-100, etc. So, the blinds don’t make big jumps between levels, but the levels go by very quickly. To put this in perspective, the starting stack is 120 BB, but if I were to break even for the first 60 minutes, I’d be down to 30 BB, which is borderline short-stacked. I believe the proper strategy for this structure is to come out firing and try to amass a large pile of chips early, so I have a lot of ammunition when the stacks start getting short and people start tightening up.

So, the first hand of the tournament, I was UTG with 54s and brought it in for a raise to 125. Only the SB called and the flop came down 43x rainbow. I felt very good about this flop since I had paired and it was very unlikely that the flop hit his hand (although the SB is a pretty tricky, solid opponent). He checked, I bet out 100, he called. The turn was an Ace, making the board A43x rainbow. I didn’t like this card very much, but he checked to me, so I bet 250 and he check-raised to 500. Since I had a pair and a gutshot straight draw, I called figuring I had good implied odds if I made two pair or a straight on the river. The river was a Deuce, making the board A234x and giving me the second nuts. He bet out 700 (by now I’ve got him on an Ace or possibly two pair with something like A4 or A5) and I raised him to 2000. He called and I triumphantly turned over my straight as he showed his 52o, which had made a straight on the turn. We chopped the pot and the whole table had a good laugh at the two of us putting in half our chips with five high. The interesting thing about this hand as that we have played against each other many times before, so we were both “playing the player”. I think we both had the other guy on a couple big cards (probably an Ace) and we both thought we had trapped the other guy.

I didn’t know it at the time, but that was the most excitement I would see during the tourney. There really aren’t any other good hands to recap, actually. I bluffed off a quarter of my stack with 9-high on an A46 board with two clubs. I got little to no action on my few big hands (I couldn’t really figure this out since I’d shown that I was crazy enough to play 54s UTG for half my chips). I never got about 9500 chips and most of my table was around or initial 6K chips when I busted at the 300/600 level.

My last hand was a bad one as I made the right play at the worst time. A middle position player raised it to 2200 (a little more than 3.5 BB) and everyone folded to me in the SB. I looked down at AJo and moved in for about 4800 more. He thought for a long time and finally called with QQ, which held up and I was done. The reason this was such a bad play was that I made it against the tightest player in the tournament. This guy simply doesn’t play crummy cards. For him to open in middle position with me in the blind, I’d say he had at least AQs+ and pairs 99+ (I think he would limp with pairs 66 to 88). Because of the size of his raise, I put him on 99, TT, AQs or AK. It just seemed like he had a good hand, but not one that he wanted action on. In this situation, I think he would’ve folded AQs, maybe AK, 99, TT and maybe JJ to my re-raise. Unfortunately, at this stage in the tournament, I think I gave him too wide a range. I think his opening range for that bet is more like TT+, AK, which means there are less hands he would fold here (I can no longer get him to fold 99 or AQ since he’s not raising with them there). The bottom line is I made a bad play against a really tight player and I got my chips in as a 7-to-3 dog.

That about sums up the whole tournament. I never really had a big hand, but I ran into plenty of big hands (at least one set, top pair and a flush draw) and I chopped my best hand of the night (the wheel from the first hand). It seemed like my cards didn’t matter as I missed virtually every flop I saw (again, except the first hand). It just wasn’t my night. I think I might have one more chance to get enough points to win a seat to the TOC, but I’m not sure. Last I checked, 10 people get a seat and I was number 11 or 12.

Break-out night

A few months ago, I decided to start playing tourneys with smaller fields and low buy-ins to lower my variance. One of the best options out there are the PokerStars $4 + .40 180-person SNGs. They’re good because they’re cheap, limited to 180 people and they run all the time. I decided to start playing two at a time to keep from getting bored.

Well, it wasn’t long before I took 3rd place in one. Then I got stupid and took some shots at bigger tournaments and re-depleted my bankroll (I’m apparently not a very fast learner). So, last week as my bankroll neared “rock bottom”, I started buckling down and playing the small tourneys and multi-tabling SNGs again. I played 10 or 15 1-table SNGs, then I played a 1500-person, $10 tournament and cashed. Then I took a couple days off. Then last night, I played two $4.40 180-person SNGs on Stars.

About 45 minutes into the tournaments, I was doing really well. I’d gotten up to around 9K chips in one and about 4300 chips in the other (we started with 1500 chips). I was making moves, winning big pots, getting out of the way when I didn’t have the best of it, and generally playing great poker. I sent my friend the following e-mail:

“I don’t know if you’re around, but if you are and you’re bored, you may want to tune in. I’m in a serious zone right now…”

I could just tell it was going to be my night. A little more than four hours later, both tournaments had ended and my results were as follows:

You finished in 2nd place and $144 has been credited to your PokerStars account:

351 hands played and saw flop:
– 23 times out of 66 while in small blind (34%)
– 20 times out of 63 while in big blind (31%)
– 44 times out of 222 in other positions (19%)
– a total of 87 times out of 351 (24%)
Pots won at showdown – 16 out of 30 (53%)
Pots won without showdown – 79

You finished in 2nd place and $144 has been credited to your PokerStars account:

288 hands played and saw flop:
– 15 times out of 49 while in small blind (30%)
– 19 times out of 49 while in big blind (38%)
– 25 times out of 190 in other positions (13%)
– a total of 59 times out of 288 (20%)
Pots won at showdown – 15 out of 19 (78%)
Pots won without showdown – 48

No, that’s not a whole lot of money, but it is a huge ROI and that’s all I was really concerned about. I turned $8.80 into over $280 in four hours. More importantly, I played very, very good poker. I think the most important part of the tournament was when we were on the bubble. When there were about 45 people left (18 spots paid), I noticed that people were tightening up. I decided it was time to start raising and continuing to build my chip stack. Sure enough, when we made the money, I was chip leader in one tournament and 2nd in chips in the other.

In general, I was card dead at both final tables. On one table, I never had a pair and I had AK one time. On the other, I had a few big hands, but most of them were outdrawn (QQ lost to AJ, JJ lost to AJ, AK lost to K9, etc.). In spite of my crummy cards, I played good poker and made it down to heads-up in both tournaments. I played well heads-up (I felt I had a pretty good edge in both matches), but the blinds were so high that we were basically just gambling to see who won. In one match, my opponent started with a 2-to-1 chip lead and I managed to close the gap a bit although I never had any cards. I ended up busting with two over-cards and a gutshot straight draw when I semi-bluff check-raised all-in and ran into his top-pair, top-kicker (it was an 8-high board). After the tournament ended, I re-read the hand history to see if I could’ve done anything differently. The eventual winner had KK three times at the final table (that he showed) and AK a few times also (again, that he showed). He was simply catching cards and I really don’t think there was much I could have done better. In the other match, we were both very short-stacked and we got all the chips in with my AJ vs. his 77. I made trip Jacks, but he made Sevens full.

I think this was a break-out night for me. For more than four hours, I felt like I was completely in control of both tournaments. I was playing my cards well, but I was playing my opponents better. I was able to make good reads and had the courage to follow through with them in several key situations. I was raising without fear on the bubble, but also exercising good judgment when someone played back at me (which didn’t happen often). I made very good mathematical decisions and pulled the trigger on some difficult but timely bluffs.

I think a big contributor to my ability to control the tournaments was my new strategy of making 2.5 BB my standard opening raise. Ultimately, I was able to open more pots than usual, control the pot-size better and, most importantly, manipulate my opponents with minimal risk. The 2.5 BB raise seemed most effective on the bubble, where people aren’t as concerned with bet-size as they are with surviving.

I have a live $55 tournament tonight and I’m feeling very confident that I’ll do well. I’m playing to win, and I’m confident I can.

2.5 is the new 3!

DISCLAIMER: Do not attempt to read this if you don’t care about poker. In fact, even if you care a lot about poker, this will probably bore you to tears. I’ve written all this to get my general ideas on paper so I can scrutinize them and determine whether they’re sound or silly. Try reading this drivel at your own risk.

I recently changed up to a standard 2.5 BB raise, which I’m comfortable with and which I believe saves me chips in the long-run. Why? Basically, if I raise 2.5 BB, I can play more pots for the same money, and I feel that the more pots I play with the players I usually play against, the bigger my edge will be. The 2.5 BB raise is cheaper because it saves .5 BBs every time I open a pot and because it saves me 1 BB every time I make a continuation bet (c-bet), which is almost every time against typical, non-aggro players. Here’s how:

First of all, if my table will let me steal with a 2.5 BB raise, then I’m getting more bang for my buck. I’m putting in 2.5 BB to win 1.5 BB (BB plus SB), which means my play has to work about 63% of the time to break even. If I put in 3 BB to win 1.5 BB, it has to work about 67% of the time to break even. Of course, my raise won’t win the blinds nearly that often, but that’s ok because I’ll often be raising with hands that are strong enough that I don’t mind getting called. Also, when the antes kick in, I usually don’t increase my standard raise even though the starting pot is larger. With antes, a 2.5 BB raise will usually be getting close to even money pot-odds, which means it only needs to work 50% of the time to break even. In that case, it typically will work that often. This is a separate topic, but the reason I don’t increase my raise proportionally to the starting pot size is that players don’t adjust their play to the better odds I’m offering with a small raise. Players tend to start tightening up when antes kick in because they’re trying to survive. Because they’re (usually incorrectly) tightening up and not adjusting their calling range to accommodate the better pot-odds, they’re making a mistake which can be easily exploited by making many small raises to take down the pot pre-flop.

Second, it costs me less to make my “standard” sequence of bets–raise pre-flop, then make a c-bet if it’s checked to me post-flop–which I typically hope will lead to a fold on the flop. Say I raise from the button and I make it 3 BB. The BB calls, so there are now 6.5 BB in the pot. We see the flop, he checks and I make a standard c-bet of half the pot, or 3.25 BB. So far, I have invested 6.25 BB and my only goal has probably been to win what’s out there (ie, I’m not trying to build and win a big pot, I’m just trying to take down a small pot and add to my stack). Up till now, it’s unlikely that a slightly smaller or slightly larger bet size would have affected the hand. The BB probably would’ve called 3 BB just as often as he’d call 2.5 BB or even 3.5 BB because he either likes his cards or he doesn’t. So, if the same scenario plays out, only I use 2.5 BB as my standard, then I raise to 2.5 BB, he calls it, he checks the flop, I bet 2.75 BB and I’ve invested 5.25 BB to win a small pot. In fact, I’ve invested 5.25 BB to win the initial 1.5 BB offered by the blinds (after all, the hand began as a struggle for the blinds, so unless I’m trying to build a pot, every subsequent bet I make is ultimately an attempt to win the initial pot consisting only of the blinds) whereas with a 3 BB raise, I will have invested 6.25 BB to win that same 1.5 BB. Given this perspective, a 2.5 BB raise called pre-flop and followed with a post-flop c-bet of half the pot has to work about 78% of the time to break even, but a 3 BB raise with the same sequence would need to work 81% of the time.

So, all other things being equal, reducing my standard pre-flop raise from 3 BB to 2.5 BB shows a 3-4% increase in equity both pre-flop (on the initial steal attempt) and post-flop (on the subsequent c-bet) each time I make this play. This is a substantial increase in expectation at lower cost that I believe compounds over time (ie, the course of a tournament). While I think that pure steal raises and c-bets show a negative expectation, reducing the pre-flop raise amount makes these plays less negative (in business parlance, I’m talking about cost avoidance, not cost savings).

Here’s another perspective: The whole point of a tournament is to be the last one standing, to survive longer than all the other players. There are basically two ways to accomplish this–accumulate chips when possible and conserve chips when necessary. Chip accumulation typically occurs when I have a strong hand, whereas I’m trying to conserve chips on my weaker hands. It is definitely possible to accumulate small amounts of chips with weak hands (by bluffing and taking advantage of situations), but weak hands typically lead me to try and save my chips (usually by folding). Raising to 2.5 BB allows me to save many, many chips throughout the tournament as I make small bluffs (steal attempts). Here’s an example:

Of course, it’s necessary to say that attempting to steal the blinds semi-regularly is absolutely necessary in order to make sure that I get action when I have good hands. It’s also necessary to survive and conserve chips while waiting on good hands. Any good tournament player will steal the blinds as often as he is permitted because it’s a necessary part of the game. That being said, steal attempts (I’m talking about full-on bluff-raises to take the blinds) typically show a negative expectation (my example above claims that, even with a small 2.5 BB raise, the steal attempt has to work 63% of the time to break even and it is not often that I am at a table that will let me get away with stealing two out of three times I try it) and I think it’s critical, when possible, to minimize the losses incurred by trying to steal blinds.

Say my standard raise is 3 BB and there are no antes, so my raise needs to work 67% of the time to break even on a steal attempt. Let’s say it actually works 50% of the time (very generous), so half the time I make this raise, everyone will fold, and the other half of the time someone will either call or play back at me. That means 50% of the time, I’ll increase my stack by 1.5 BB and 50% of the time I’ll decrease my stack by 3 BB. That means this play shows an expectation of (.5*1.5 – .5*3) = -.75 BB each time I try it. So, if I try to steal 100 times in a tournament under these circumstances (no antes), then I will lose 75 BB. The same calculation for a standard 2.5 BB raise yields that I will only lose 50 BB in 100 steal attempts. So, by decreasing my standard opening pre-flop raise, I can save as many as 25 BB over the course of a tournament. To take that idea one step further, if I’ve saved 25 BB over the course of a tournament and my standard pre-flop raise is 2.5 BB, then I can open 10 more pots than I could if with a 3 BB standard raise. The idea that I can play more pots (usually in position) this way is really the major determining factor in my decision to change to 2.5 BB. I’ll cover that in another post.

In my next post, I talk about my flawed assumptions and problems these ideas might have in the real world. I’ll also talk about other factors that may compensate for these problems.

Tired adventures

Tired adventures

Where to begin? I guess I’ll begin in the middle (beginning at the beginning is worn out and beginning at the end is feaux ironic). Saturday afternoon, I took my car to Discount Tire to have the tires rotated. I had been holding out because the dealer wants $20 to do it and Discount does it for free. So, I was in there for about a half hour when the guy came over and told me everything was done and “You know there were scratches on your wheels before you brought it in, right?” “Sure”, I said, thinking he was talking about some curb rash I likely incurred as I bumped a curb taking a turn the other day.

I went home and decided I better have a look at the wheels, just to make sure we were talking about the same damage. It didn’t take long for me to see what he was talking about: there were gouges in three or four places on each wheel, usually between lug holes on the spokes. I did not recall that damage, so I called to talk to the manager who requested I bring it back in. I did and he had a look at it. He said he wasn’t sure how that could’ve happened, but that it looked pretty fresh because the spots had no “oxidation” yet. I agreed that it looked fresh and asked him what was to be done. He said he wasn’t sure what equipment could’ve done that, but if it was new and I couldn’t think of any other cause, then they would have my wheels refinished. During our inspection, we also found some damage to the sidewall on one of the tires. That damage I could explain.

Now back to the beginning. A few days before, I had been driving to the gym when, in an attempt to play air drums with a double-bass pedal and drive, I accidentally clipped a curb on my way into the parking lot. At the time, I didn’t think much of it, but I did look at my driver’s side wheels to make sure I hadn’t done any serious damage. I didn’t see anything on either wheel, so I assumed that only the tire had made contact with the curb and that the wheels had been spared. So, I had inspected at least two of the wheels only three days before my visit to Discount, and that’s why I was so confident that the gouges on the spokes weren’t there before said visit.

Back to the middle. So, I left Discount feeling pretty good and thinking that, even if they did mess up my wheels, at least they were taking responsibility and having them refinished on their dime. It wasn’t half an hour before my phone rang and another manager wanted to talk to me. He said he was there when they noticed the damage before they started the work and that it was definitely already there. I asked, “Well, if there was damage and you noticed it before you started the work, why didn’t you come in and ask me if I had seen that damage? If I was in that situation, I’d ask the customer first to avoid this kind of confusion.” He did some side-stepping and then continued to insist that those marks looked like “balance marks” and that, since they hadn’t balanced the wheels, they couldn’t have done that damage. He asked if the tires had been balanced before and I told him I thought they had not, but that I would call my dealer to be sure.

I phoned my dealer who informed me that the tires had been balanced in November, eight months earlier, during a regular service visit. He said that it was unlikely they had damaged the wheels and that if the guy at Discount said the damage looked fresh, then it probably was. I agreed. He also said that there was nothing they could do to help me out since someone else had handled the wheels and it’d been so long since the dealer had worked on them anyway. I told him I understood.

So, I called Discount back and talked to the first manager again and told him what the dealer said. He said that when he committed to pay for the refinished, he was under the impression that Discount had also balanced the tires and not just rotated them. I said I understood, but that I was still confident that the damage hadn’t been there before I brought the car in. I began to get frustrated as I felt he was backing off from their commitment and that, even worse, they may take no responsibility for the damage. Trying to at least get some assistance, I offered to go halfsies on the refinish and he reluctantly agreed. We set an appointment for Monday morning so I could swap wheels with some loaners and my wheels could be sent to be refinished.

Now to the end (yes, finally). On my way to Discount this morning, I noticed that my “low tire pressure” indicator was lit, and I immediately wondered whether the sidewall damage had caused a leak. I asked the Discount guy to take a look since he’d be taking the tires off to put them on the loaner wheels anyway. Sure enough, the tire had a slow leak and had to be replaced. Lucky for me, he had one in stock. He was kind enough to charge me half price for the tire and recommended I get Discount’s lifetime replacement warranty on my tires. I had considered this before since the dealership did not guarantee the tires when they sold me the car. I decided to take the warranty at $23 per tire and I wish I’d done it sooner (since it would’ve already paid for itself).

So, after going to have a tire rotation, I ended up getting all four wheels refinished, a new tire and a replacement warranty on all four tires for a total cost of $455.

Lessons learned (for those too lazy, or too smart, to read this whole stupid post):

  • Avoid air drums and other air instruments when driving around corners
  • Inspect personal property before allowing someone else to work on it (this goes for cars, houses, shoes and anything else that may or may not be damaged before or after having the work done)
  • Once a company has committed to something, don’t allow them to back down from it (like I did, which cost me about $250)
  • When buying new tires (or when buying a vehicle with new tires), get a replacement warranty on them in case you catch a nail or, I dunno’, clip a curb or something–it will be well worth it or, at worst, a small investment in your peace of mind

EDIT: I was driving to lunch on Saturday afternoon (almost three days after the tire was replaced and the wheels were re-installed) when my “low tire pressure” light came on. Of course I wasn’t too happy about this, but I thought it could be that the Texas heat had caused my tires to become over-inflated. So, I went out and bought a little tire pressure gauge and checked everything out. Turns out my front driver’s side tire was down to 16.5 psi, which is about half what it should be. I inspected the tire and saw that there was a mark on the sidewall and I suspected it could be another slow-leaking tire. I put some air in it and the light went off, so I was convinced that this was indeed the troublesome tire.

This morning (Monday), the light came on as I left for work, so I decided to swing by Discount to have them look at it. Turns out they never replaced the tire before, so they put a new one on (for real this time). Hopefully this whole tire hassle is over.

9-Ball is totally… hilarious?

Today, as on many other boring Sunday afternoons, I turned to ESPN to keep me entertained. Sure enough, there was some Women’s 9-Ball Championship action, and it couldn’t have been more hilarious. Before you can experience the hilarity, it’s necessary to invest a little time watching a match, but it’s completely worth it.

After each match, ESPN will show the obligatory close-up shot of the loser. This moment must be savored as it is ever so brief, but jam-packed with unintentional comedy. In all of television, there may not be so much venom, ill-will and implied nastiness in such a short time as is consistently shown in this moment. One can only imagine the loser’s evil, evil thoughts as she eyeballs daggers directly into her opponent’s soul.

$40 tournament recap: tough day at the office

I just got back from a $40 tourney. There were only 21 people and we started with 10K in chips with 30-minute blinds. I busted 6th–on the bubble–after a rollercoaster final table. I felt like I played fantastic poker (the best in a while), but the cards just didn’t cooperate once we made the final table.

I started the day off with a bang: I bluffed three barrels after the flop and got called all the way down. I was playing the board on the river and I didn’t have any kind of draw (I had T9o and the board was pretty scary, which is why I kept betting). I showed my hand and thought, “Well, now they’ve seen me bet big on every street with air, so it’s time to get paid off on some hands!”

My first big hand was a turned set when I had 33. There were a couple limpers and I was in the BB. The flop was T76 and I bet out half the pot. Two guys called and the turn came a 3, giving me bottom set on a very non-threating board. I bet out a little more than half the pot and got one caller. River was a blank, I bet out a little more than half the pot and got a caller. I figured he had at least top pair, maybe even a funky two-pair with T7 or 76. I said, “You’re not gonna’ like this.” and I showed my set. That was a pretty nice pot.

A few hands later, a new guy came to the table. He had already lost about half his chips (I think we were in the second level, maybe third level). When someone sits down with a short stack, I start wondering how they got short. Usually, they’re either playing badly, or they’ve taken some tough beats. It usually only takes a few hands to figure out if they’re playing badly, and this guy liked to call too much. He called pre-flop raises and flop bets way too frequently. I had seen him play three or four hands when I was dealt ATo in middle position. Compared to the cards I’d been raising with, this was a big hand, so I popped it up to 2.5 BB. The new guy called and everyone else folded. New guy would have position on me throughout the hand. The flop was A96 rainbow, which I considered a good flop for me. I took a look at him to make sure he wasn’t jumping up and down, celebrating a flopped set or anything, then I bet about half the pot. He quickly called. From his call, I felt like he was pretty strong (I mean the way he called, not just the fact that he called), so I figured him for either a decent Ace, a strong nine (K9, Q9) or maybe TT. I was leaning toward a strong Ace given that he called my pre-flop raise and now quickly called my bet on the flop. The turn was another six (a good card if I’m ahead, a meaningless card if I’m behind), making the board A966. I was watching him out of the corner of my eye and my gut just told me to check it and see what happened. I knew that if he had AQ, AJ or AK, I wasn’t getting him to fold if I bet out, and since I now had Aces up with a medium kicker, I wasn’t too afraid of being outdrawn if he checked behind (if he has TT, he has two outs, if he has a strong nine, he has two outs) and there really aren’t any scary draws out there. If he checked behind me, the plan was to bet out about half the pot on the river, regardless of what card came off. As it happened, he bet about half the pot, which meant I had a decision to make. If I was ahead, I felt like I should make a small raise to try and build the pot, so I could get paid off on the river (if he had something like TT). If I’m behind, I’m drawing almost dead and I don’t like knowing that I’ll have to call a bet here and possibly call another bet on the river. Also, if I’m behind, it’s very unlikely he’ll fold if I raise. I had to replay the hand: he called a pre-flop raise, he called a half-pot bet on the flop, he bet when I checked to him on the turn. I decided he had AJ or AQ and I figured he would’ve raised the flop with AQ, which left me with AJ. I thought about it for a while and he finally said, “If you fold, I’ll show you my hand.” Sometimes, this means the guy’s weak and he wants you to go away. This time, I felt like he was geniunely strong. I said, “You’ll show it?” He said he would, so I turned over my ATo and said, “I can’t beat Ace-Jack and I think that’s what you have.” Sure enough, he turned over AJo and took down the pot.

A few hands later, I had 55 in the BB. UTG raised to 3 BB, the button called and the SB called. The flop was K63 rainbow and we checked it around. The turn was another K, making the board KK63. I considered this a good card for me and since the UTG player hadn’t bet the flop, I figured I’d take a stab at the pot. I bet something like 40% of the pot, and everyone folded to the SB who check-raised me to about 3x my bet. There weren’t any draws out there and if he had 54, I thought he would’ve bet out on the turn. I felt like he either had a King or six, or he was bluffing. I decided that was a bad place to try and bluff, and I didn’t want to put a lot of chips in there with a paired board and an overcard to my 55, so I folded my 55 face-up (I was hoping he’d show me a King or six, or a bluff, so I could remember the hand for later). He showed 34s for bottom pair, no kicker. What really confused me about the way he played the hand was that I don’t know if he was bluffing or check-raising for value. I still don’t know. Bad laydown, I guess, but it didn’t cost me many chips.

A while later, I had A8 in the SB. I had been really active, so I figured I’d take this chance to slow down and maybe catch an Ace-high flop to get paid off. Everyone folded to me, I completed and the BB checked. The flop was Q86, giving me middle pair, top kicker. I really liked my hand. I bet out for half the pot and the BB called. He either has a Q, an 8, JT or J9, or maybe KT or K9. My plan was to fire another shot if the next card was an undercard to the board or an eight. The next turn was a King, which I really didn’t like. I felt like I was either behind or my opponent had just picked up a pretty good draw (possibly as good as an open-ended straight draw and two overs). I checked, he checked behind. The river was a four that put three hearts on the board. I checked, hoping for a free showdown. He bet about half the pot and I folded. We chatted about the hand for a bit and he said he had an eight. I hated to hear that because it meant I made a bad laydown. In fact, I played the hand terribly. I should’ve bet when the King came off on the turn, and I knew it as soon as I checked. Since I checked the turn and he checked behind, then a pretty harmless card hit the river, I should’ve called his bet on the river since my pair was likely good. I wasn’t happy with myself after this hand.

A couple orbits later, I got AKo in middle position (eureka!). One guy limped in front of me (his limping requirements were very broad; this was the same guy who I hit the set of threes on earlier), so I popped it up to 4 BB. Everyone folded back to him and he called. The flop was Axx (two low cards). He checked, I bet half the pot and he called. The turn was a blank. He checked and I checked behind, hoping to induce a bluff on the river. The river was a Jack, which I didn’t particularly like. He bet out for about 2/3 the pot and I thought for a while before calling. I really thought he made two pair, but I was wrong and my Ace won the pot. I’m not sure what he had, but that was a pretty decent pot.

I made a couple good moves to pick up dead money. For instance, two people limped in early position (I detected weakness since they liked to limp), so I popped it up to 6 BB and took it down. I think about three players knew exactly what I was doing, but they didn’t have anything to play back with. I guess that’s one way to win chips with 42o.

A bit later, I got KTo on the button. Two or three people limped and I thought about making a move, but the time just wasn’t right, so I called. SB completed, BB checked and the flop came down AQJ with two hearts. I flopped the nuts in a five- or six-way pot, which I consider a pretty good result for this hand (insert snarky smile here). Everyone checked to the CO who bet about half the pot. He was short-stacked, so that was an argument to just call, but since there was a heart draw out there and any King or Ten would counterfeit my hand, I decided to raise. I raised to a little less than three times his bet because that was enough to leave him a few chips (I didn’t want him to fold a hand like A5, KQ or KJ). Everyone else folded and he called. Turn was another Ace, which I didn’t love, but it wasn’t a heart so I was ok with it. He moved in his last few chips, I called and he showed JT of hearts. He had flopped bottom pair with a straight and flush draw and turned a draw to a full house. Luckily, the river was a blank and I busted him.

About ten hands later, I got KK in middle position. I made my standard raise and got called by the BB. I’ve played with this guy quite a bit and I know he likes to take down pots with overbets and I know he likes to bluff big on the turn if he feels he can steal the pot. The flop came down K53, so I flopped the nuts on a dry board. He checked, I “thought” for a second and checked behind. The turn was a 6 (I consider this a very safe card since he’d have to be playing 24 or 47 to be ahead right now) and he checked again. I decided to bet half the pot and hope he would come after me. I bet half the pot, he check-raised all-in and I insta-called. He had A4o, so he was drawing to four Twos. He missed on the river and I busted him out.

So far, I’ve made two sets, flopped the nut straight and made top pair, top kicker and gotten paid off to the river. Is this what it’s like to run good? I’d have to enjoy the feeling since that would be the end of all that.

I basically went totally card dead and just tried to pick up small pots when I could. I made a standard raise in middle position and got called by the BB. The flop was A66. He checked, I bet and he called. Obviously, I put him on an Ace and I had to decide if I was just done with the hand or if I’d try to take it away from him on the turn. The turk was a King, making all that a moot point (if he had an Ace with a weak kicker, he now had Aces up with top kicker and would only fear AK or a six. He checked and I checked. The river was a blank, he checked and I checked. He showed A9 and took it down. I decided this would be a good time to pretend I just took a bad beat, so I started up the “I had Jacks and he hit a three-outter on me” routine. Of course, I had been trying to steal with 62o, but the table didn’t need to know that.

I had about 25K chips when the following hand came up just before our second break. An early position player raised to 4 BB and it was folded to me on the button. I looked down at 99 and considered raising, but this guy didn’t raise up front very often (he limped sometimes, but rarely raised), so I called. I figured he probably had AK, AQ or AJ(s), maybe KQ (although I thought he’d limp with that hand) or maybe a pair (88 or higher). I think his raise to 4 BB (as opposed to 3 BB) told me he was probably not super strong, so I was leaning to AK, AQ, AJ, 88, 99 (unlikely) or TT. The blinds folded and the flop came down QJ5 rainbow. Yuck. I hate that flop. I’m now beating exactly AK and maybe 88 and that’s it. The good news is that if he has a hand like AJ or TT, I might be able to move him off of it. He checked and I checked behind him. I felt like his check was probably weak, but I didn’t have a lot of information. If I was ahead, then I wasn’t all that far ahead if he had AK (he had ten outs in this case) and If I was behind, I was drawing nearly dead. I figured I’d get more information depending on the turn action. The turn was a four of spades, making the board QJ45 with two spades. I considered this a good card. He bet half the pot and I felt he was pretty weak. I hated the over cards, but the only hand I’m really afraid of here is AQ. I decided to raise because I might still be ahead and he might fold some hands that I beat (AJ, TT). I raised to 2.5x his bet (which was about half my remaining stack) and hoped for a fold. Unfortunately, he called. I didn’t like this call and began wondering if my read that he was weak might be off. Maybe he did have AQ after all. Ooops. The river was another spade, making the board QJ45x with three spades. He moved all-in and I went into the tank. I tend to trust my reads and my read on the turn was that he was weak, but since he called a substantial raise and then moved in on the river, I figured he had to have a hand that beat 99. I reluctantly folded and silently beat myself up for making a bad read on the turn and losing about 60% of my stack on that hand.

After the break ended, we played a few more hands before we broke it down to the final table. I think it was pretty obvious that I was still frustrated about the last big hand when a friend of mine asked me what I had. I told him I had a pair. He quietly said, “He said he had Ace-King of spades.” I said, “So, he made the nuts on the river?” “Yeah.” Boy was I relieved! I had made the right read after all! Unfortunately, he also made a good call (he was being offered the right break-even pot-odds to make the call) and got lucky on the river. If I had seen his cards, the right move would’ve been to either move all-in or smooth-call and hope to induce a bluff if he missed the river. Of course, I had no way of knowing he had 18 outs.

As it was, I was short-stacked going into the final table. I was gonna’ have to get lucky and soon. About six hands into the final table, I got AK in the BB. The big stack at the table made a small-ish raise in late position and it was folded to me. I thought for a bit and moved in. He called with AQo and I doubled-up (this was a much stronger hand than I gave him credit for). Next hand, I had AJo in the SB. A short stack moved in in late position and I called. He showed A9 and I busted him when my AJo held up. And then? And then the famine came.

A few hands later, it was folded to me in the CO and I had QJs. The BB was short-stacked, so this was definitely a raising hand (it is normally anyway). I raised to 2.5 BB, the SB folded and the BB moved in. I had to call because it was only about 1.5 BB more to me. He showed AQ and his hand held up. That hurt a little, but it wasn’t a big deal. Over the next few orbits, every time I tried to open a pot, someone came over the top with a big (usually all-in) raise. Every time, I had to fold (I had decent hands–A7o, A4o, stuff like that–but I knew they had me). Most of the time, they would show AK, AQ or something like that. One hand, three guys limped in front of me and I knew they were all weak. I popped it up to 6 BB with 34o. Everyone folded to the BB, who moved all in for about 19 BB on top of my bet. All the limpers folded, I put on a show, said, “I just don’t think I can call this. I think you might have me dominated.”, which everyone else apparently took to mean, “I have a medium Ace.” I folded and he later told me he had KK. What was odd was that when other players raised, they would just take the blinds without any trouble. I don’t think the table was picking on me (after all, I’d only shown two hands since we sat down and they were AK and AJ), I just think people were waking up with hands at the wrong times for me.

I kept blinding down and finally stole a pot when I moved in UTG with QJ. Three hands later, I moved in with KTo on the button, got called by the SB with A9o and I was out. I couldn’t have been more frustrated. There’s no worse way to bust from a tournament than to go card dead and just get blinded off in spite of seeing good situations to raise and steal. “That’s poker.” I finished 6th of 21 guys. We’d played for 5.5 hours and I finished on the bubble as the to five got paid. Awesome.

Basketball team has fallen to 1-3

Basketball team has fallen to 1-3

The week after we eked through our first game, we got pounded by the defending champs. After a bye, we got beat by a mediocre team even though we were within five points with about three minutes remaining. This week, we lost to another mediocre team by one point even though we led most of the game.

In general our problem can be summed up in one word: Inconsistency. We can’t get the same guys to show up from one week to the next (our roster is nine deep, but we probably have only four guys who are there every week) and that inconsistency leads us to be inconsistent on offense. Last night, I’m pretty sure we led all statistical categories except FG %, FT % and Points. We took a lot more shots than they did, we had a lot more rebounds (especially offensive) than they did and we took probably twice as many freethrows as they did. We played great defense, took good shots on offense, drew a lot of fouls, but simply couldn’t put the ball in the bucket.

Personally, I felt I played one of my best all-around games in a while. I ran Point Guard most of the night and I was very comfortable in that position. My passes were on target and usually to a wide-open man, I don’t think I had any turnovers and I had six points on something like five shots. My six points came on consecutive three-pointers in the first half. Both shots felt and looked perfect and were set up because my team got me the ball when I got open on the weak side of the floor. I’m pretty sure I only had three points scored on me, and my defense was pretty solid off the ball.

It’s frustrating to keep losing (especially to inferior teams), but I guess we can’t really expect to win if we don’t have the same team from week to week. We need our guys to start showing up so we can start getting into a groove.

Back to the… Office?

Back to the… Office?

I passed a Delorean on my way to work this morning. I think I’ve only seen one other Delorean on the street, and that was eight or nine years ago. I was just humming the Back to the Future theme song and thinking, “Hey! A Delorean! That’s pretty freakin’ cool!” when I saw the Delorean’s driver and did a double-take. She was in her early forties, shoulder-length blond hair, probably a mother of two. I started to doubt myself–maybe it wasn’t a Delorean, but just some car that reminded me of a Delorean–so I slowed down to have another look. It was a Delorean all right, a Delorean being driven as a daily beater by a soccer mom. What is this world coming to?

Just busted out of $215 super sat to WSOP ME

Just busted out of $215 super sat to WSOP ME

Yesterday, I played a Party Poker $5 re-buy satellite to a $215 super sat to the WSOP Main Event. I just busted out of the $215 super satellite. 439 people were entered, top eight spots got a seat to the Main Event. By the first break, I had turned my 3K starting stack into over 11K through very solid play. I was mixing it up and getting my opponents to put their whole stacks at risk when they were often drawing dead or nearly dead. After the first break, I went totally card dead and didn’t win a pot for over 25 minutes. My 11K dwindled to about 4.5K and the blinds were 200/400, so I was in trouble. I caught some cards and made some good pre-flop moves to re-build my stack to over 11K. The blinds and antes went up to 300/600, so I was getting short stacked again when this hand came up.

READS: Really, the two significant reads are on the CO and BB. CO had been constantly open-raising for 5-8x the BB. BB had been regularly calling his (and everyone else’s) raises. CO and BB had been involved in many, many pots and had essentially been moving chips back and forth acrosss the table. The reason my stack dwindled to 4500 earlier was that I simply never had a chance to enter a pot. I didn’t catch any cards, CO opened almost every unopened pot and, if I was lucky enough to have it folded around to me, then BB would usually call my raise. This forced me to tighten up quite a bit.

That being said, the table would often walk to the BB on his blind (either because they didn’t want to play a maniac or because they simply didn’t have cards). Every time it had been folded to me, I had completed the SB or folded and he had yet to raise from the BB. Unfortunately, I hadn’t won any of these confrontations because he wouldn’t fold post-flop and I never connected. Lately, though, BB had been tightening up a bit (either because he was card dead–and it’s hard to imagine which cards he would deem unplayable–or because he had accumulated enough chips and he was ready to buckle down and play poker). I decided that if the table walked to us in the blinds again, I would raise his BB to 3x BB with any two cards. I needed chips and breaking even in the blinds for an orbit would buy me some time.

As for my post-flop read on BB, I noticed that he would bet small or call when he had nothing or a draw (depending on whether he was out of position or not). He would bet big or raise when he had connected with the flop. He would often call the flop and always bet the turn if checked to. I don’t think I had seen him check behind on the turn yet. He had folded once on the flop to a standard continuation bet I made after he called my pre-flop raise in middle position. This was a few orbits ago and, as I said, he seemed to be playing a little tighter since then.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold’em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB (villain) (t13802)
UTG (t10614)
UTG+1 (t6872)
MP1 (t7393)
MP2 (t360)
MP3 (t240)
CO (t17261)
Button (t5670)
SB (Hero) (t10359)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jd, 7h.
7 folds, SB (Hero) raises to t1800, BB (villain) calls t1200.

Flop: (t3600) Ts, 2d, 5c (2 players)
SB (Hero) bets t2000, villain calls t2000.

Turn: (t7600) 7s (2 players)
SB (Hero) checks, villain bets t2838, SB (Hero) raises to 6559 and is all-in , villain calls t3721.

River: (t14159) Kc (2 players)

Final Pot: t14159

Results:

villain has Ah 7c (one pair, sevens).
Hero has Jd 7h (one pair, sevens).
Outcome: villain wins t14159.

Although I busted from the tournament, I’m very pleased with how I played this hand. I think my pair of sevens is good here about 75% of the time or more. I made a good read and just got unlucky that 1) He connected with the board at the same time I did and 2) he called an all-in check-raise with second pair after I’d raised (for the first time) from the SB pre-flop, led the flop for just over 1/2 pot and then check-raised all-in on the turn.

Here are my thoughts, street by street:

Pre-flop: I covered this pretty well above. I decided to raise with any two if the table walked to our blinds. His call told me very little except maybe that he didn’t have 72o. I had been hoping that he was tightening up and I wanted to see what he’d do if I raised his BB.

Flop: I consider this a very good flop considering 1) His calling range pre-flop was very, very wide and 2) this is a very dry board. I’m hoping he called with a weak Ace, two broadway, maybe some medium suited connectors or one-gappers pre-flop and it’s very likely this flop totally missed his hand. I typically make a continuation bet of about 1/2 pot here, so I bet 2000. When I made the bet, I was obviously hoping he’d fold. I decided that if he raised I was done with the hand and if he called and I didn’t improve on the turn, I was done with the hand. Sure enough, he called.

I decided that he did not have a Ten since he was pretty aggro and would’ve likely min-raised with top pair here. Since there’s no obvious draw on board, I figure he either has a 2, 5, 34 (very unlikely) or air. I also allowed for the tiny possibililty that he had 22 or 55 and was slowplaying a set.

Turn: Viola! I made second pair on a dry board and I’m convinced second pair is good here. If he had 88+, he would’ve raised me by now. If he had a Ten, he would’ve raised the flop. If he had a 5 or 2, I’m ahead. If he called the flop with 34 (or any other “draw”), he just missed. If he had some kind of suited connectors (56, 67, 78, 89), I’m way ahead. If he has a set of twos or fives, well, then he has a set of twos or fives. If he had absolutely nothing, he likely still has absolutely nothing. I know that he’ll always bet the turn if I check to him and I know a small bet typically means he’s weak. My plan is to check-raise him all-in Unless he makes a pot-size bet, in which case I’ll have to re-evaluate.

I check, he makes a weak bet of about 1/3 pot, which is my cue to move in. My stack is a little more than 1/2 the pot and I want to get the money in now in case he has two overs or some kind of draw to two-pair or a straight. This is a value-bet and I don’t really care if he folds or calls.

Of course he insta-calls and turns over A7o and I’m drawing to three outs. That’s poker.

For grins, I gave my opponent a reasonable range of hands (for him) on the turn to see what my equity against his range of hands was. Basically, I gave him any Ace, all connectors, any two broadway and small pairs 22-66. I think I was pretty generous with this range since it includes several unlikely hands that have me crushed (AT, KT, QT, JT, T9). According to PokerStove, I had 70% equity against this range of hands:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

142,956 games 0.090 secs 1,588,400 games/sec

Board: Ts 2c 5c 7s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.4713 % 29.47% 00.00% { 66-22, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o, 32o }
Hand 2: 70.5287 % 70.53% 00.00% { J7o }

I don’t know if any poker players read this thing, but if you do and you have any thoughts on this hand, let’s hear ’em!

EDIT: The guy that busted me ended up winning one of the seats to the $10K WSOP ME. I watched a bit of the final table and I literally couldn’t believe what I saw. This was one of several “interesting” hands that I saw in the 10 minutes I observed the final table:

They were down to 9 players and 8 players win a $10K seat to the WSOP ME. There is no other prize. The only goal is to finish in the top eight. On the last hand, the short-stack called all-in UTG for about 1/4 the BB. A few players folded, two players called, another player folded, another player called, the SB completed and the BB checked. The flop came down Q92 with two clubs. Everyone checked. The turn was a Ten of spades. Everyone checked. The river was a blank. A couple players checked, a player min-bet, a player folded, two more players called. The min-bettor turned up JJ, one of the callers showed KK and won both the side- and main-pots.

Unbelievable! These people just won a $10,000 seat into the Main Event at the World Series of Poker. I’m not sure I really understood the term “dead money” until now.

Thoughts from Florida

Thoughts from Florida

NOTE: I wrote most of this late one night as I sat awake at Dad’s house, just sitting and thinking. I don’t really remember what I wrote…

I’ve been in Florida for about 48 hours and I’ve only sneezed three times. I’m not sure what’s going on, but I should be completely overwhelmed by my allergies by now. A few minutes ago, I thought, “Hey! I’m breathing through my nose!” I am very sophisticated.

So far, I’ve seen almost everyone in my family, my friends’ nine-week-old baby and three people I hadn’t seen in several years. I hadn’t seen one guy since the late 90s. Technically, it’s now the late 2000s.

I have a job interview some time this week, but I don’t know when. The deal is that I’ll call some guy on Monday morning, then the guy will talk to me for a bit and maybe decide he wants to do a face-to-face interview some time this week. That’s super except I’m planning on going to Orlando this week, so I’ll need to change my plans. Of course, it’d be a lot easier to change my plans if I knew how I’d be changing my plans.

Lucky for me, I decided to rent a car, so I can make last-minute changes to my schedule. Unlucky for everyone else on the road, I got a Chevy Impala. Compared to the car I own, the Impala drives much like I imagine a tugboat drives. The blind spot might as well just be a posterboard that says “Watch out!” and I often imagine I’m trying to hug an oak tree when I grab the steering wheel. I think a lot of my impressions of the car are heavily influenced by the noxious smell that National included. I get the distinct impression that the dude who cleaned my car just opened the door, splashed a bottle of Clorox around and then sealed everything up.

My youngest brother is almost 10 months old. He’s always happy. I actually met him about seven months ago, just after he was born. Then, he just looked like every other baby I’d ever seen. But when I saw him yesterday, the first thing I thought was, “Holy cow… he looks just like I did at his age.” It’s almost creepy how similar we look. For his sake, I hope the trend doesn’t continue.

I’m being forced to consider the possibility that I could be offered a job here in Jacksonville. Since I left for college, I have consistently been opposed to living in Jacksonville, but I’ve never really been sure why. I think the main reason is that I was getting really bored with the city before I graduated high school. Maybe I think I’ll be bored if I move back here. That may be true, but I ain’t exactly livin’ la vida loca in Dallas either.

As I’ve grown up, I’ve been through phases defined by the stages of others’ lives. For instance, I remember when I entered the stage where everyone I knew started getting married. One after another, it seemed like everyone else was tying the knot. Then the babies started coming. A lot of the couples I know are on their second child. Now, some of the earliest to get married are beginning to consider divorce. What’s sad is that many of those couples were previously the couples having babies.

I don’t understand why people don’t take a little more time when deciding to get married. What they don’t realize is that divorce is rough on parents, but it’s their children who are really affected. They get married for a few years, have a kid, get divorced and they’ve moved on within a few years. But the kids won’t be moving on in a few years; it could be 10 or 20 years before the kids can move on.

A lot of people think I’m a pretty funny guy, and a lot of people think I’m an idiot who says stupid things. I know who’s who, and it doesn’t usually take me long to figure out what people think is funny. I met a couple friends for breakfast yesterday and I realized that, although I hadn’t seen either of them in a few years, I still knew exactly what kinda’ stuff would make them laugh. There’s no such thing as something that is empirically funny. Funny is nothing but a perception, and funny people can identify what other people perceive as funny, then use those things to make people laugh. If you don’t think I’m funny, you might consider that I simply don’t want to make you laugh.

My little sister talked me into playing Candy Land with her today. I think she may have hustled me. She kept saying stuff like, “Oh wow! You might win this game!” and “If you just land on that bridge, you’ll be in the lead!” But she just kept beating the crap out of me. We played like three games and I never had a chance in any of them. On its face, Candy Land appears to be totally based on luck, but I think she might have figured out a way to get an edge. After she killed me in Candy Land, we switched to “Gold Fish”, which I later realized was her own version of Go Fish. We each started with only four cards and I later found out that we were playing with a 47-card deck. Neither of us ever won, but after we finished each game, she’d say, “I don’t know why they didn’t put very many Aces in there… do you wanna’ play again?” I think she was playing some kind of mind game with me.

My big-little brother is a black belt in Karate. He was telling me how there’s one student in his class that consistently beats up on all the other kids. He told me this kid once beat every student in sparring, one at a time, in a class of 25 students who ranged from rank beginners to experienced black belts. When I went to observe his class today, he pointed her out to me: she was the 95-pound, thirteen-year-old, second-degree black belt instructing his class. I imagine she’s going to have a hard time finding dudes to date since she probably considers most boys to be pansies or sissies.

My cell phone doesn’t work in my Dad’s house, so I have to go drive around the neighborhood looking for a signal. Earlier this evening, I took a drive to check my messages and I had a couple voicemails and text messages. I realized I wouldn’t be able to return any of my messages if I went back to the house, so I decided to keep driving around while I got in touch with everyone. My plan was working out pretty well until I realized how dangerous it was to be driving around at night, in a rental car, in an unfamiliar part of town while thumbing out text messages on my phone. Did I stop? No. I just kept driving and texting while occasionally saying, “This is stupid.”