WWDC 2013: My prediction roundup

With the WWDC keynote happening later today (instructions to watch it are here), this is as good a time as any to look at my recent Apple predictions. Fortunately, I wised up and started labeling with “Prediction:” on Twitter, and Twitter lets us download our full history, so my predictions are pretty easy to find. Here are my recent predictions that could come true at WWDC 2013.

Summary

Prediction: In less than a year, we’ll will forget Apple Maps was mediocre at launch, and wonder why it took them so long to make their own.
Prediction: iOS7 will drop August 2013 (ahead of iPhone 5S), will be a drastic improvement, including a possible overhaul of the entire UI.
PREDICTION: Third-party apps are coming to Apple TV in 2013. Multi-media, games, new app categories – this will be a game-changer.

Apple Maps

Prediction: In less than a year, we’ll will forget Apple Maps was mediocre at launch, and wonder why it took them so long to make their own.

— Josh Doody (@JoshDoody) September 21, 2012

This was from September 2012, so I still have a few months. That said, Apple Maps has improved quite a bit, but is still not stellar. For my original prediction to come true, I really need iOS 7 (which is now all but confirmed) to include a major update to Maps. On one hand, this seems inevitable, but on the other hand it seems like Apple is throwing maximum resources at a UI redesign, so maybe they don’t currently have resources for the under-the-hood improvements needed to bring Apple Maps up to par with Google’s offering.

iOS 7 overhaul

Prediction: iOS7 will drop August 2013 (ahead of iPhone 5S), will be a drastic improvement, including a possible overhaul of the entire UI.

— Josh Doody (@JoshDoody) September 23, 2012

Also from September 2012, this one is more or less a lock and doesn’t seem like much of a prediction at all, but the context is important here: Last September, iOS 6 was still fresh (released on September 19), Scott Forestall was still at the iOS helm, and there was no sign of a major redesign in the offing. iOS had looked the same since its initial release, five years earlier, and the look and feel seemed to be fully entrenched, with Apple adding more skeuomorphic touches over time.

But then Scott Forestall left in late October, and Jony Ive was given oversight of Human Interface design, sending a strong signal that Apple would redesign iOS this year. This is a substantial change: I don’t recall anyone predicting that Forestall would be out, and Ive would take this type of role. But once it happened, a substantially redesigned iOS 7 was virtually inevitable.

Third-party apps for Apple TV

PREDICTION: Third-party apps are coming to Apple TV in 2013. Multi-media, games, new app categories – this will be a game-changer.

— Josh Doody (@JoshDoody) February 13, 2013

Fast-forward to 2013, and I’m predicting Apple TV will support third-party apps this year. To be fair, I’ve basically made this same prediction every year since 2009 (implicitly in 2009, took 2010 off, 2011, 2012, 2013), so this isn’t an unusual prediction for me to make. But Tim Cook teased “exciting new product categories” on the previous Apple quarterly earnings call, so maybe this is finally happening. Seems like the most likely new categories are TV and wearable tech.

The thing I’m most excited about is the iOS 7 update. I can’t wait to see an iOS 7 demo.

Some stuff I got wrong last year

In the interest of full disclosure, these are two predictions I made that ended up being way off base. Those came and went a while ago, but they signal a pretty big shift in Apple’s release strategy. That change makes it tough for me to feel good about hardware releases, which is why I don’t have any hardware-related predictions for WWDC 2013. I don’t understand what Apple is doing with hardware release cycles, so I don’t feel good about making those predictions right now.

NEW POST: “What would make an iPad Mini compelling? (HINT: Color e-Ink.)” (In which I make half-hearted predictions.) bit.ly/QcVNUs

— Josh Doody (@JoshDoody) October 10, 2012

That said, I had a sneaking suspicion that I was going to be super wrong (this is one of several “I could be very wrong” tweets I sent leading up to the iPad mini announcement last fall):

My predictions for today’s Apple event are probably all wrong. (iPad) bit.ly/OREV8X (iPad Mini) bit.ly/QcVNUs #Schadenfreude?

— Josh Doody (@JoshDoody) October 23, 2012

Sometimes you eat the bear…

What would make an iPad Mini compelling? (HINT: Color e-Ink.)

iPad Mini rumors have been flying for a while now, and Apple is allegedly sending out invites today (October 10) for an announcement on October 17. ¹ This is different than my normal predictions and prognostications because, frankly, all of this is very murky to me. I’m really just thinking aloud, and writing what I think.

I should also emphasize that I think I’m very wrong here. The most logical iPad Mini would just be a smaller iPad with an almost-Retina display, amazing battery life, Lighting connector, and full-fledged iOS 6. But that’s boring, and I don’t see what it really adds to Apple’s product line. This post is really about how I think Apple could design an iPad Mini so that it adds something new and game-changing to the market place, but my predictions probably aren’t realistic.

Summary (in case you don’t feel like reading the whole thing)

I don’t really understand the niche that the iPad Mini would fill
If Apple does release an iPad Mini, they should’ t call it “iPad” anything – they should call it iPage
iPage should have a color e-Ink screen
To keep costs down, iPage would have to be a feature-poor iPad
iPage should run a lightweight version of iOS
iPage should start at $199 for a 16GB version (maybe the only one)
iPage should offer a $100 option for cellular connectivity

I don’t really understand the niche that the iPad Mini would fill

Will there be an iPad Mini announcement? It seems dubious to me, but the rumors are pretty loud and strong, so I have to give them a lot of weight. I don’t quite understand why Apple’s iPad needs a small cousin to compete with Kindle et al. The biggest problem with releasing an iPad Mini is the price point.

Price point – There’s been a lot written about this. The best piece I’ve seen is from Gizmodo: “The Single Biggest Question about the iPad Mini“. Basically, it’s tough to figure out where iPad Mini would fit into Apple’s pricing scheme. It would have to be cheaper than a “full-size” iPad (right?), which means it would land smack on top of the iPod Touch in Apple’s pricing structure. So, consumers could buy an iPod Touch or iPad Mini for the same price. That seems odd to me. I don’t think it’s a showstopper, but it would be strange to see an iPad Mini competing with iPod Touch.

I think the iPad Mini will have to start at $199 to compete with the “eReader” market that it belongs in. Presumably, the reason Apple would create this device is to compete with the Amazon and Barnes & Noble. To really compete in that world, $199 is almost mandatory. What’s odd is that Amazon and Apple have entirely different (opposite, really) business models. The Kindle is a loss-leader designed to give Amazon customers an easier way to buy stuff from Amazon ². So, there’s the stuff people buy (songs, movies, etc) from Amazon, then there’s the way for them to buy it (Kindle Fire, e.g.). Apple does the opposite: their stuff exists to make the Apple ecosystem a richer place so that customers will buy their hardware, which is where they make all their money. So, in order for Apple to enter this space, they’d be creating profit-making hardware to compete with loss-leading hardware.

To be clear, I think Apple can do this ³, I just don’t understand why they would. Apple could probably create a great sub-$200 competitor for the eReaders out there, but I don’t see what they would gain from that device. Apple doesn’t want to sell music or eBooks just to sell them – they only sell those things to make iOS devices more useful. Trying to figure out the utility of a $200 Apple eReader keeps landing me in logic whirlpool.

I’ve been pretty good about iPad predictions in the past ⁴, and I’ve followed the iPad very closely, but I don’t quite understand why an iPad Mini makes sense. All that said, why not get into a hypothetical “iPad Mini is happening!” mindset and make some predictions?

If Apple does release an iPad Mini, they shouldn’t call it “iPad” anything – they should call it iPage

I’d expect Apple to differentiate the iPad Mini from the iPad itself. The iPad isn’t an eReader, it’s a tablet PC. But the “iPad Mini” wouldn’t really be a tablet PC so much as a super fancy eReader. My guess is they would differentiate it from the iPad by calling it something completely different. iPage seems logical, except it conflicts with their Pages word processor.

iPage should have a color e-Ink screen

I think the next big display breakthrough will be color e-Ink with refresh rates that make it possible to browse the web and flip through color e-magazines. There has been a lot of ambiguity about the resolution of the “iPad Mini” display (mostly that it won’t be Retina, but will still have pretty good resolution). This could be because the new display isn’t the same technology used for current backlit displays.

One thing Apple really focuses on is making it easy and pleasurable for its users to consume content on its devices. They’re in the midst of a full-on Retina update to everything they sell. It’s time for the next big thing, and that thing could very well be color e-Ink. Other firms have tried this ⁵, but the bottom line is that current technology just can’t refresh fast enough to be useful. It takes too long to draw the screen, so flipping pages or looking at anything that moves just doesn’t work very well. If Apple solves this problem and makes a 7″ color e-Ink screen technology (I would call it “Perfect Print” or “Print Perfect” or something like that) that allows for page flipping and animation, that would be a game changer.

iPage with Perfect Print would introduce some technical challenges for the user experience. Swiping and scrolling would probably have to be rethought so that they’re more efficient and economical. Unless they’ve made huge strides with refresh rates, we won’t be able to just swipe down and watch our Twitter feed inertially scroll by – e-Ink just couldn’t keep up with that.

To keep costs down, iPage would have to be a feature-poor iPad

My guess is that these Perfect Print displays would be expensive, which means Apple would have to cut some functionality elsewhere to compete at the $199 price point. What they would cut, I don’t know, but I have a few suggestions.

iPage should run a lightweight version of iOS

I don’t think this device would run a full version of iOS, but a slimmed-down version (think Apple TV). Mobile Safari might look more like the “Reader” functionality available now – no video, but a clean way to read and maybe see embedded (static) images. Email should be ok. Newsstand would obviously be a big part of the device.

iPage should start at $199 for a 16GB version (maybe the only one)

The baseline iPage would start at $199. Storage would start at 16GB, and that may be the only option. I think on-device storage would be a great place to cut costs since most of the stuff consumed on the iPage would be eBooks and that sort of thing–all stuff that could just be “streamed” from the cloud. It probably won’t have a camera, and LTE would be extra.

iPage should offer a $100 option for cellular connectivity

Getting all that stuff from the cloud is obviously easiest using WiFi, but Apple likes to give customers full mobility, so I expect a cellular option for $100. The pricing for this option is tricky, as the iPad cellular option is $130, but I just don’t see how they could offer a $130 add-on for a $199 device.

Final thoughts

I don’t understand the need for an iPad Mini, but if they do it, they should call it iPage, start innovating color e-Ink technology, and make it $200 or less.

If Apple could revolutionize e-Ink and make it really sharp, with great color saturation and faster refresh rates, I might just buy one. Otherwise, I’ll probably just stick to my iPad.

Why there won’t be a New iPad refresh this Fall

There’s been some chatter that Apple might release a refreshed New iPad this Fall. I don’t think so. Here’s why.

Summary (in case you don’t want to read all the detail)

There won’t be a refreshed New iPad this fall
The Lightning connector is Apple’s final dedicated device connector
But the new Lightning connector isn’t worth of a full iPad refresh
Other “reasons” for updating the iPad don’t make sense either

There won’t be a refreshed New iPad this fall

I think it’s extremely unlikely that Apple will release some sort of “updated iPad” with a Lightning connector, faster processor, better battery life, some sort of “heat issue” resolution, or any of the other rumored improvements.

The Lightning connector is Apple’s final dedicated device connector

Apple’s new connector has caused quite a stir among those who rely on the 30-pin connector. I think the Lightning connector is great (I love it on the iPhone 5), and I think a decade of one connector is plenty. Frankly, I hate the 30-pin connector, and it seems anachronistic to me. Thirty pins? C’mon. We don’t need 30 pins. Going to a small connector is necessary because devices are shrinking, especially in the “thickness” dimension. Apple has gone to great lengths to squeeze every last millimeter out of their devices, and moving to the much-smaller Lightning connector is a logical step down that path.

I haven’t predicted this elsewhere, so I might as well predict it here: The Lightning connector will be the last dedicated device connector Apple makes. It’s built to be future proof, and will probably outlast its own utility pretty easily. Wireless charging will be mainstream within 10 years, and wireless syncing is already taking off. Wireless data speeds are increasing rapidly, and our ability to “soft-sync” (a term I just made up) is growing with features like Power Nap. This means we don’t have to actually wait for things to sync anymore since they’re always syncing in the background whenever they get the chance.

But the new Lightning connector isn’t worth of a full iPad refresh

Despite the Lightning connector’s superiority to the 30-pin connector, it makes absolutely no sense for Apple to refresh the iPad mid-cycle just to include this new connector. Releasing a brand new version of the product just to accommodate the new connector strikes me as totally ludicrous. Apple is finally fully ramped-up on production for the current iPad hardware, and they would have to re-ramp part of their production line to accommodate this (or any) change. I don’t see the payoff for doing that. What do they gain by forcing an update to the Lightning connector on the already-successful iPad? I can’t think of a single benefit that wouldn’t be just as potent with the next iPad in April.

Other “reasons” for updating the iPad don’t make sense either

Faster processor – Most of the concerns from the Lightning connector carry over here. Additionally, the current iPad is still one of the most responsive tablets on the market. There’s no reason to rush out a mid-cycle update to cram in a faster processor. The cost seems pretty great (to Apple), but the benefit seems almost non-existent.

Better Battery Life – All the stuff above, just repeated here. The battery life on the iPad is market-leading and phenomenal. There’s no tangible benefit to doing a mid-cycle refresh to get a little extra battery life. I use my iPad daily, usually for multiple hours, and I only charge it every third or fourth day. My guess is I use my iPad more than most (but less than some really heavy users like traveling bloggers), so if I’m only charging every few days, most people are only charging every five days or so. That’s pretty amazing.

Addressing the “Heat Issue” – I think the “Heat Issue” is about 95% hype with no real substance. I’ve been using my New iPad daily since I got it earlier this year. Yes, it gets warm sometimes, but never so warm that I have to stop using it, or even that I have to use it differently. I also kept an eye on all the “reports” of New iPad running hot earlier this year–almost all of them basically said, “Well, it’s warm, but… not super hot or anything.”¹

Final thoughts

I see no reason for Apple to roll out a mid-cycle updated New iPad. It makes no sense. They would basically be spending a lot of time and money to address issues that aren’t actually issues. Not happening.

Apple iPhone Lull: Screw-up or growing pains?

Henry Blodget at BusinessInsider.com wrote “Okay, Can We All Now Please Agree That Apple Screwed Up With The iPhone?” in response to Apple’s unusually lackluster quarterly earnings report for Q3 FY12. He makes some good points, but he’s missing a huge factor regarding iPhone’s release schedule and how it’s changed over time: the Verizon iPhone.

He cites two contributing factors that hurt iPhone sales this year. I’ll just quote him:

First, Apple switched (or delayed, depending on who you listen to) the launch of that year’s new iPhone to the fall instead of the June releases it had had in prior years. This “delay” took many people by surprise, and it also kept the then-current version of the iPhone, the iPhone 4, on the shelves for three months longer than people had expected. This contributed to a sharp fall-off in iPhone sales in the summer months, as the “4” began to feel stale and customers waited for the new version of the iPhone, which almost everyone assumed would be the “iPhone 5.”

Second, when Apple finally released the new version of the iPhone, it was not the iPhone 5–it was the iPhone 4S, which didn’t look or feel much different than the iPhone 4. Although the iPhone 4S was a great phone and sold very well initially, it was soon leap-frogged in some respects by new, bigger phones from Samsung and others. And now, with Samsung’s very-well received Galaxy S3 out there, the current iPhone looks decidedly small and old. So much so that the “air pocket” in iPhone sales appears to have started one full quarter early this year and will therefore wallop both the June quarter and September quarter, while customers wait for the iPhone 5.

Summary

It’s possible that Apple screwed up with the iPhone, but probably not in the ways Blodget describes. At the very least, there are some factors he left out of his analysis. If Apple did screw up, it was by making a calculated decision to introduce the iPhone to a new US market on Verizon’s network. It’s obvious that Apple saw Verizon as an opportunity to open up the iPhone market in the US, and they took the opportunity. We don’t know the details of either the AT&T or Verizon contract, so it’s tough to know for sure what Apple was working with when they decided to release the Verizon iPhone 4 in February 2011, four months before the next “standard” iPhone release date.

I’ve already written about why the 4S release was expected and appropriate. I won’t spend any more time on that. ¹

Apple delayed the 4S release until the fall instead of the summer

Here are the iPhone release dates so far ²³:

iPhone – June 29, 2007
iPhone 3G – July 11, 2008
iPhone 3GS – June 19, 2009
iPhone 4 – June 24, 2010
iPhone 4S – October 14, 2011

Apple was remarkably consistent with release dates until the 4S. What happened? I actually kind of cheated above – there’s a release I didn’t include:

iPhone 4 – June 24, 2010
Verizon iPhone 4 – February 10, 2011
iPhone 4S – October 14, 2011

Apple needed to move out from under the exclusive AT&T contract, and open up the iPhone market in the US. This “How Apple’s Revenue Stacks Up” chart shows pretty flat-looking iPhone revenue from late-2010 into mid-2011. I couldn’t find numbers Verizon vs. AT&T iPhone unit sales, but my guess is that AT&T iPhone sales tailed off in early 2011, and were overtaken by Verizon iPhone sales through the first half of 2011.

It seems like Apple’s exclusive AT&T contract was still in place when the original iPhone 4 launched in 2010, delaying Apple’s move to Verizon until February 2011. Then they could start selling on Verizon immediately or wait for the iPhone 4S later in the year. They chose to sell on Verizon immediately rather than wait.

The downside to this decision was it left Apple in a bit of a pickle: their normal release cycle would put the iPhone 4S release around June 20, 2011 – only four months after the Verizon iPhone 4 was released. That would probably make the Verizon iPhone 4 adopters pretty angry, so they delayed the 4S until October ⁴.

In this context, it’s obvious to me that Apple made a calculated business decision: in order to expand its US footprint by adding new carriers, they released the Verizon iPhone 4 in February 2011 – only a few months before the typical iPhone release window. Then they bumped the 4S release until October in order to avoid angering customers who just bought a shiny new Verizon iPhone 4. Apple knows first-hand how angry people get if they release a new gadget, and then immediately undercut themselves (either on price, or by releasing another new gadget).

I think Apple wants to release iPhones at the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4 (fiscal), but they had to slip the 4S to keep new Verizon adopters happy. The 4S was released in October 2011, and I expect the iPhone 5 to be released in September 2012 (or sooner). The 5S will probably come earlier (August) and so on until the iPhone is back in the late-June/early-July sweet spot that Apple has used in the past.

Apple released the 4S instead of the 5

This is pretty simple, actually, and I’ve written before about how Apple cycles hardware and software updates to remain competitive while continuing to produce the best products. ⁵ I think Apple has a pretty clear pattern of this.

iPads so far:

iPad
iPad 2 (body changed significantly, much faster processor, different look and feel, smart cover, etc.)
“New” iPad (pretty much the same form factor, added Retina, a little speedier, not much else)

And they’ve followed a similar pattern with MacBook Pros.

(First gen) Original MacBook Pro – 2006 (spec bumps followed)
(Second gen with big change) Unibody MacBook Pro – 2008
(Spec bumps throughout 2009 before…) Big spec bump on MacBook Pro – 2010
(Third major iteration) MacBook Pro with Retina, SSD, thinner form factor – 2012

My point is that there really wasn’t any reason to think the 4S would be a 5. That’s just not how Apple does things. 2011 was a year for big software updates (including Siri) and a spec bump for the iPhone 4 (to the 4S). I also think releasing the iPhone 5 right after the Verizon iPhone 4 would have been a mistake. The way Apple did it, the Verizon iPhone 4 users could think, “Well, the 4S looks pretty neat, but I’ll just wait for the 5.” rather than, “WHAT?! I just bought the iPhone 4 and now it looks obsolete?” Meanwhile, a lot of new iPhone users bought the 4S or upgraded ⁶, so 4S sales were still strong. The iPhone 5 will sell like hotcakes, and eventually Apple will get back to its normal iPhone release cycle. I don’t think they have screwed up with the iPhone, they’re just experiencing growing pains as they seek greater market penetration in the US.